Dynamics of Area Change under Commercial Crops in Tamil Nadu

The area under commercial crops has been fluctuating over the years in Tamil Nadu. However, the change in area is not same for all the crops. Hence the present study was conducted to assess the growth rates and the dynamics of area change of cash crops in Tamil Nadu by using the secondary data for the period of five decades from 1971 to 2020. Among cash crops oilseeds had highest area under production followed by coconut, sugarcane and vegetables. All commercial crops, with the exception of sugarcane, tea, coffee, and vegetables, have a negative growth rate. The transitional probability matrix for area under cash crops was obtained using Markov chain analysis. By simulating this transitional probability matrix, the area under major cash crops in Tamil Nadu for the next decade has been projected. Sugarcane is the only crop with a positive trend for the projected area, while cotton, spices, coffee, and vegetable group exhibit a declining over the period.